ИСТИНА

The storm events in the Black Sea, Caspian Sea and Baltic Sea are examined in connection with the main atmosphere storm weather patterns grouped into the circulation types (CTs), and their changes in present climate. A calendar of storms is derived from results of wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) experiments for 1948-2011. On the base of this calendar, a catalogue of atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) fields was prepared for CTs from NCEP/NCAR dataset. Then SLP fields were subjected to a pattern recognition algorithm employing empirical orthogonal decomposition followed by cluster analysis. For every CT detailed analysis of their seasonal and interannual changes, their role in storm events formation is analyzed. An increase of the storm CTs’ frequency in the second part of 20th century is shown to be in a good agreement with such teleconnection circulation patterns as Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Scandinavian blocking. Projection of storm weather CTs frequency during 21 century for RCP8.5 scenario of radiation forcing is given on the base of CMIP5 climate models results -it is shown that number of such extreme patterns significantly increases.