ИСТИНА

Most general circulation models (GCMs) applied to the northern hemisphere simulate wetter and warmer climate in forest zone and growing aridity of the steppe and forest-steppe zones of Russia. In general these projections are supported by observation over current climate transformation in Russia. Current climate warming in the northern hemisphere is mostly associated with more intense activity of the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and weaker Siberian Anticyclone (SA) while connection between their intensity and rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is not firmly established. To answer the question about of nature of the current climate transformation we have to define the “historical” and “new” climate by quantitative parameters. We use statistical models «yield-weather» as a proxy for «historical climate». These simple regression models are designed for each region (oblast) of Russia for the period of 1961-2010. In general the models demonstrate a good correlation between cereals yield data and combination of meteorological parameters (monthly temperature and precipitation) specific for each region. We suggest that if some Russian regions show strong divergence of results of simulation from actual yields for current period (2010-2017) it would indicate emerging of “new climate” at least for agricultural sector. If no such regions are found we would conclude that current climate in Russian regions still go within its historic fluctuation patterns.