ИСТИНА

The methodology of compiling the GIS of dangers and risks was proposed. it was approved for the Kursk region. Natural, anthropogenic and natural-anthropogenic dangers affecting the development of crop production were considered. They were differentiated for real and potential dangers. On their basis, the risk of crop production was estimated. The risk was estimated through the damage from the decrease in the price of land. This indicator was given preference since it is complex, in contrast to the evaluation of yields, it takes into account such factors as pollution of agricultural land, gully and soil erosion, etc. The structure of the proposed maps is open and provides for the receipt of additional information in the form of thematic layers with an attribute base attached to them. The proposed approach allows to study various scenarios of modeling and forecasting of danger and risk: to change the number of dangers considered; change the number of danger gradations (or portray danger continually without gradation) and their score; calculate the risk for different recipients and/or their aggregate; to vary cost (for example, market or cadastral value of land) and grade scores; zoning of the territory according to the degree of this or that danger and risk; predict the dynamics of dangers and risks