ИСТИНА |
Войти в систему Регистрация |
|
ИПМех РАН |
||
The period around the minimum of cycle 23 are characterized low sporadic activity and stable corotating patterns in solar wind flows. The sources of high speed solar wind were long-living low latitude coronal holes. The results of prediction quasi-stationary solar wind velocity using different models are presented. From the simplest model: "the next Bartels rotation is just as the previous Bartels rotation" to empirical model and artificial neural network forecasts of SW velocity using CH areas. The prediction results show that the simple models work well during quiet solar conditions. The period near the minimum of cycle 23 are characterized low sporadic activity and stable corotating patterns in solar wind flows. The sources of the quasi-stationary solar wind flows are long-living low latitude coronal holes. It is well known that good correlation exists between coronal holes area and solar wind velocity. We present an empirical and artificial neural network models for prediction of the values of the solar wind velocity by the areas of low-latitude coronal holes. The coronal holes areas were calculated using the solar images from instrument EIT onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).