ИСТИНА

Between the natural factors that shape the agriculture in Russia, climate is the most important one. Since the effect of global warming is even more profound at high latitudes, the northern countries, like Russia, can reasonably expect even higher temperature rise, which will significantly affect the agricultural sector. The five different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were used for three pre-set time periods: 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. All climate change scenarios show significant increase of temperature and moderate increase of precipitation. Yield models based on GCM simulations show an increase in potential yield in central and northern regions and a drop in yields in currently the most productive southern European region of Russia, due to increasing frequency of droughts. It is likely that the most productive regions will have to cope with increasing crop failure by shifting their strategy from producing crops for export to local consumption. Aside from the political and economic reforms, bringing new investments into the regions, best suited for large-scale agriculture, climate change is likely to redefine these regions, strengthening land use and land cover change. Adaptation to the new climate through shifting the agriculture further north will be limited by the shortage in fertile soils. Another adaptation strategy is a major increase in irrigated area, which, however, will be limited with seasonal water shortage.