ИСТИНА

The problem of Somalia conflict, often referred to as State Failure issue has attracted attention of scholars and practitioners in the 1990s as one of by-products of the dissolution of the Yalta-Potsdam system of International Relations and the end of the Cold War. Ever since that pivotal moment, the issue of a failed state remains unresolved, although the overall conflict landscape in Somalia has improved, especially with the emergence and rise of Somaliland and Puntland, still largely unrecognized diplomatically worldwide. An almost 20-year period of applying various conflict resolution schemes, negotiations and attempts to resolve, or to create a viable theoretical and practical framework to address conflict in Somalia calls for a revision of some fundamental conflict actors’ notions of this conflict, as it is the major conflict actors that influence this conflict drivers and peace agendas. At present, in Somalia there are 5 parallel conflicts : 1) Federal Government of Somalia versus non-state violent conflict actors of islamist groups al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam over ideology and national power issues, which started in 2006 and up to 2013 has been defined by Conflict Barometer as all-out War; 2) Puntland self-proclaimed authority versus Somaliland self-proclaimed authority over territory and subnational dominance issues, which started in 1998 and is characterized as non-violent dispute; 3) Puntland self-proclaimed authority versus Federal Government of Somalia over Puntland autonomy issue and status, which is ongoing since 1998 within a non-violent format; 4) Somaliland versus Khatumo State Autonomy over subnational predominance and power, which is ongoing since 2009 and is currently a violent crisis; 5) Federal Government of Somalia versus Somaliland over secession, territory, and power, which is ongoing since 1991 with a present non-violent status (however, the status has changed over last 24 years). Due to grave security conditions, UNDP does not provide Human Development Index for Somalia. This paper addresses one bloc of domestic political actors in ongoing Somalia peacebuilding process – Somali ethnic clans. For each of these actors, 5 aspects are assessed: clan interests in the current conflict, relations with other clans and overall influence on the ongoing conflict, clan’s capacity to influence the conflict positively\negatively, clan’s peace agenda (where applicable), and incentives for the clan to progress to peace (where applicable). The main Somali clans that are assessed in this paper are Darod, Dir, Hawiye and Issak clans that comprise what is called the Samale group, and the Rahaweyn clan (includes sub-clans of Digile and Mrifle), which is known as the Sab group. Methodologically, for purposes of this paper the methods of case-study, comparative analysis and chronological assessment shall be applied. This research builds on the SIDA-suggested method of conflict actor – behavior – capacity analysis to suggest potential pathways of peacebuilding in Somalia today. Structurally, this paper provides brief overview of the Somalia conflict and its dynamics, description of clans and tribal clan system in Somalia, actors’ 5 aspects assessment. The paper concludes with recommendations to for policymaking and further research on Somalia conflict.