ИСТИНА

With the 2nd cycle of "warming" in the Russian Arctic after 1930s - up to 0.8-0.9OC /10 years climate changes vary in the regions, and biota responds not only by different rates, but also by different directions. The "greening" of the Arctic (increasing the productivity), is revealed spatially unevenly and often due to different processes. The regions’ "initial positions" of the state of the Arctic biota at the time of the "rapid" climate changes’ beginning differed. All this allows us to conclude that models demonstrating the response of Arctic ecosystems to warming (Bala, et. al., 2005) – their almost complete disappearance with continuing temperature trends by the end of the 21st century are not correct. The methodology of "direct" assessments of the effects of temperature increases on biota by spatial extrapolations (shifting borders and replacing some biomes with others, the disappearance of cryophilic species and the expansion of thermophilic plant and animal species, etc.) does not take into account the regional specifics of the observed phenomena. It examines the regional biogeographic effects of climate change - changes in the composition of flora and fauna, population dynamics, presence of lemming cycles, species ranges (f. ex. dispersal of Atlantic, boreal and North American species), migrations. That is why we propose a methodology that takes into account the differences in biota responses to climate change in each region. There are 6 regions with different responses to climate change - Kola, Nenets, Yamal-Gydan, Taimyr, North Yakutia, North and South Chukotka, where the trends in the last 3 decades differed significantly in both the vector and intensity.