ИСТИНА

Ongoing global warming and growth in climate extremeness affect in most regions of Russia and influence different aspects of human life. Therefore, Russian territorial zoning in terms of natural conditions of the human’s life is becoming increasingly relevant for evaluating contemporary climate conditions and predicting conditions of human life in the future. The zoning is based on the level of impact of the main natural factors on conditions of the human’s life: cold, heat, moisture, height above sea level, and natural disasters. Seven zones with unfavorable or favorable influence on the health, living, and labor activity of the population are determined: I – absolutely unfavorable; II – very unfavorable; III – unfavorable; IV – conditionally unfavorable; V – conditionally favorable; VI – favorable; V – the most favorable. The Nature conditions of human life in the second half of the 20th century and changes of them in the 21st one were analyzed. This made possible to correct the map “Zoning of the territory of the Russian Federation on natural conditions of the human’s life" and to estimate possible changes of climate conditions by the middle of the 21st century. The results of numerical experiments performed with three models presented at the fifth phase of the coupled models comparison Project (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, CMIR5) were used. The models are as follows: one of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of RAS (INMCM4); the second – Meteorological Office of the Hadley Center (HadGEM2-ES), and the third – Max-Plank Meteorological Institute (MPI-ESM-LR). It found that a significant decrease in climatic discomfort in Russia was observed during the warming period from 1991 to 2010. It was manifested in the highest reduction of areas with absolutely unfavorable, very unfavorable, and unfavorable conditions for the natural conditions of human’s life, as well as in the formation of conditions with a lower degree of discomfort in their place. Under the conditions of the current climate warming, changes in natural conditions of the human’s life will be significantly determined by warm and cold factors. The changes are due to a decrease in the sum of negative temperatures and number of days with very low temperatures, as well as due to the growth in the sum of active temperatures, an increase in the frostfree period, and a decrease in the heating period. Real consequences of the warming between 1991 and 2010 in Russia are similar to those expected by the numeric experiments using global climatic model (INMCM4) of Institute of Numerical Mathematics and the model MPI-ESM-LR of Max-Plank Meteorological Institute for the "soft" scenario RCP4.5. Maximum changes for the middle of the XXI century can be predicted using the model HadGEM2-EC of Meteorological Office of the Hadley Center.