ИСТИНА

The main difficulty in the predictability of Space weather effects is the high level of turbulent fluctuations in the solar wind, the Earth’s magnetosheath and the geomagnetic tail. However, in spite of observed high levels of fluctuations and comparatively low correlations of geomagnetic indexes with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and the solar wind parameters, many scientific groups can predict some parameters like the Dst index with a comparatively high confidence. We attribute this success to the validity of the condition of magnetostatic equilibrium in case of low averaged flow velocity. The magnetostatic equilibrium makes possible the existence of the quasi stable magnetic configuration even in the presence of the high level of the plasma velocity and magnetic field fluctuations. We show that it is possible to predict a number of the properties of the outer radiation belt (ORB) formed after a geomagnetic storm using such an approach.