ИСТИНА

The CME arrival operational forecasting model developed in the Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics Moscow State University (SINP MSU) Space Monitoring Data Center (SMDC) is presented. The method is based on both DBM model [1] and solar wind (SW) high-speed streams (HSS) medium-term (1-4 days) forecast [2]. The combination of these two models has already shown good results [3]. The method also include the number of filters used to select potentially geoeffective CMEs from the CACTus database. The Solar Demon dimming detection system is used to determine the possible location of the CME source. The algorithm to establish a correspondence between the CMEs and the dimmings was developed. A study of the CME modeling quality was carried out depending on the selected CME input parameters, the calculation of the background solar wind, the parameters of the models used, as well as on solar activity phase. Testing on historical data has shown that the accuracy of predicted CME arrival time obtained with our method is comparable to that obtained with current CME forecasting models presented in CCMC Scoreboard. 1. Vršnak et al. Sol. Phys. 2013. V.285. P.295 2. Shugai, Y.S. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 2021. V.46. P.172 3. Kaportseva, K.B. and Shugay, Y.S. Cosmic Res. 2021. V.59. P.268 НИР Исследования Солнца, мониторинг и моделирование радиационной среды и плазменных процессов в гелиосфере и в околоземном космическом пространстве