ИСТИНА

The work was concentrated on the problem of forecasting the core inflation in Russia and includes two parts of analysis: calculation of the core inflation index and the choice of econometric approach to modeling and forecasting the index. The core inflation is an important indicator that is often used in medium-term models in monetary policy rules. It is represented by various indices, cleared of the effects of indirect taxes, and excluding food, energy prices, as well as prices that are regulated. In the existing literature, a number of other indices are proposed, suggesting theoretical justification and compliance with certain criteria. Despite the fact that in the long term, monetary policy instruments provide control for the overall rate of inflation, the dynamics of relative prices is beyond the scope of available measures. At the same time, an increase in relative prices for a particular group of may have a short-term effect on inflation. Headline inflation indices include volatile categories of goods (food, energy). As a result, they contain noise and give a poor signal to the regulator. The core inflation indices help to separate the signal of inflationary processes, to which the Central Bank should respond, from temporary noise by smoothing out or excluding volatile commodity groups. Ironically, despite the selective approach to the calculation, the core inflation indices serve as the best reference point for understanding the dynamics of the general inflation itself. That is why, when comparing different approaches to calculating the core inflation index, a number of studies pay attention to assessing the core’s predictive power for the overall inflation (Deryugina, Ponomarenko, 2015; Rich, Steindel, 2007, etc.). Currently, the objectives set for the Bank of Russia include calculation, modeling and forecasting the core inflation indicator.