ИСТИНА

This paper evaluates the changes in factor contribution to the probability of students’ success in the All-Russian Olympiad in Economics (AROE) during the COVID-19 pandemic using classical econometric models and binary quantile regression (BQR). The AROE is one of the most important institutions of secondary education in Russia that allows winners of the final stage to enter Russian universities without admission tests. It is held in four consequent stages: school, municipal, regional, and the final. In the 2020/21 season the school and municipal stages were, for the first time, held remotely for all participants. The contribution of school rating to success at the municipal stage decreased in the 2020/21 season compared to the 2019/20 season, which can be explained by the shift to online format and by the new structure of the tasks. High score at the municipal stage (winner status) became a weaker predictor of success at the regional stage in the 2020/21 season compared to the 2019/20 season. The reason for this change may lie in a decrease in the tasks’ complexity (due to a change in their structure), a higher opportunity for cheating (due to weak and non-mandatory proctoring) or both.