ИСТИНА

The methodical ways of expert estimation of permafrost sustainability to the dangerous cryogenic processes manifestation and landscapes bioresource value (reindeer pastures productivity) of Tyumen North are considered. The assessment procedure includes a selection of main permafrost and bioresource factors, methods of their comparison, ranking anthropogenic pressure, calculating the integral coefficients of development hazard for the landscape calibration, evaluation mapping. Factor evaluation is based on the landscapes according to expert points. The methodical reception to improve them by determining the dimension of points and calculation the integral coefficients is offered. Step by step the procedure of integrated assessment of permafrost sustainability and bioresources value using of these coefficients is considered. Graphic-analytical method of combining disparate estimates of factors affecting the economic development risk of economic development in cryolithozone is demonstrated. The matrix model to formation stages of critical ecological situations is based on the account of the landscape stability and mechanical damage degree of the topsoil cover (the result of engineering structures impact together with the overexploitation during deer pasturing). The evaluation allows to select landscapes of varying danger not only for the operation of engineering structures but also for biota, and consequently make more informed decisions on limiting human-induced mechanical disturbances.