ИСТИНА

In this work, statistical and correlation properties of SV, SV forecast (SVf) and SV forecast error (ErrSVf) were compared. Spatial structure of SV components was calculated from the IGRF11 coefficients. The SV forecast was reconstructed from the IGRF3-10 coefficients. We calculate statistical and correlation characteristics both for globe and six separate areas. Four of these areas were selected at the high latitudes and one of them includes Russia and adjacent waters. Two other areas include near-equatorial region and one of them includes so-called Brazilian Geomagnetic Anomaly. The maximum of the ErrSVf was obtained for Russia and adjoining near-equatorial region. The three correlation coefficients for the spatial distribution of SV and the SVf were calculated. The first one is the correlation coefficient of SVi and SVi-1 for two consequent periods; the second one - the correlation coefficient of SVi and the SVfi for the same period; and finally, the correlation coefficient of the SVfi and SVi-1. As a result the maximum correlation coefficient obtained for the last variant. The SVf and SV for the same period correlate well only when high correlation between SVi and SVi-1 is observed. It means that the SVf repeats a spatial structure of SV of previous epoch independently of the forecast method used. The existence of large and long-term anomaly provides high correlation of sequential periods, and correlation coefficient between the SV forecast and SV for the same period is greater than 0.9. The spatial distribution of the ErrSVf is characterized by existence of independent processes, which run in liquid core, and single anomalies of small scales. However if we can identify the individual flow, research of its parameter changes doesn’t let us improve forecast accuracy, since the causes of these flows today are not defined. We suppose that the topographic heterogeneity of the core-mantle boundary, which actually remains a subject of discussions, could play an important part in these processes.