Modeling Global Spatial–Temporal Evolution of Society: Hyperbolic Growth and Historical Cyclesстатья
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Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 19 сентября 2015 г.
Аннотация:The global historical processes are under consideration; and laws of global evolution of the world community are studied. The world community is considered as a united complex self-developing and self-organizing system. It supposed that the main driving force of social-economical evolution was the positive feedback between the population size and the level of technological development, which was a cause of growth in blow-up regime both of population and of global economic indexes. The study is supported by the results of mathematical modeling founded on a nonlinear heat equation with a source. Every social-economical epoch characterizes by own specific spatial distributed structures. So the global dynamics of world community during the whole history is investigated throughout the prism of the developing of spatial-temporal structures. The model parameters have been chosen so that 1) total population follows stable hyperbolic growth, consistently with the demographic data; 2) the evolution of the World-System goes through 11 stages corresponding to the main historical epochs.
Keywords: mathematical modeling, nonlinear equation of thermal conductivity, blow-up regimes, hyperbolic growth of the population size, global historical cycles
PACS: 89.75.Fb