|
ИСТИНА |
Войти в систему Регистрация |
ИПМех РАН |
||
Experience of the forecast of water and power resources changes at warming of the 21st centuryстатья
Информация о цитировании статьи получена из
Web of Science,
Scopus
Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 18 июля 2013 г.
- Авторы: Kislov A.V., Evstigneev V.M., Surkova G.V.
- Журнал: Sci.China Ser E-Tech Sci
- Том: 52
- Номер: 11
- Год издания: 2009
- Первая страница: 3224
- Последняя страница: 3233
- DOI: 10.1007/s11431-009-0372-1
- Аннотация: Global warming causes changes of those natural resources like power resources, water resources, agroclimatic and ecological resources etc. And these changes depend on climate. Dynamics of re-sources depends both on planned economic activities and on changes of a climate. In this work the climatic component of changes is discussed. Projecting results used in this paper are based on the data of the CMIP3 (coupled model intercomparison project) in the framework of Working Group on Coupled Modelling. This project includes the world’s best climate models. Results of modelling and the data of meteorological observations expressed by probability distribution functions (or empirical orthogonal functions) were compared. It was shown that the modelling data were much more reliable over flat ter-ritories. In result 11 most successful models were selected. They can be used for the forecast within the framework of known IPCC scenario А2 at the 21st century. Estimations of changes of volumes of a river runoff and conditions of humidity of territory have been allowed to determine that the serious reduction of resources is expected in the southern part of the East European plain. Its central and northern parts practically will not demonstrate changes.
- Добавил в систему: Суркова Галина Вячеславовна