Long-term changes of river water inflow into the seas of the Russian Arctic sector

Magritsky, D.V.; Frolova, N.L.; Evstigneev, V.M.; Povalishnikova, E.S.; Kireeva, M.B.; Pakhomova, O.M.

Авторы: Magritsky D.V., Frolova N.L., Evstigneev V.M., Povalishnikova E.S., Kireeva M.B., Pakhomova O.M.
Журнал: Polarforschung
Том: 87
Номер: 2
Год издания: 2018
Издательство: Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Polarforschung
Местоположение издательства: Germany
Первая страница: 177
Последняя страница: 194
DOI: 10.2312/polarforschung.87.2.177
Аннотация: The annual runoff of rivers from the territory of Russia into the Arctic seas is approximately equal to 2922 km3, or 55.6 % of the total inflow of river waters into the Arctic Ocean. Such an amount of fresh water and its long-term fluctuations, together with the sediments and heat transported by rivers, can have a significant impact on the regional marine hydrological pro¬cesses and climate, on the hydro-meteorological conditions and ecosystems of river channels, valleys and estuaries, the abrasion-accumulation processes, safety and sustainability of nature management in the region. Almost the whole inflow of river waters (~84 %) is provided by 19 large Arctic rivers of Russia. The estimates of their runoff, as of 2015 and for the key cross sections in the lower reaches of rivers, were obtained for the first time. The new data allowed to clarify the values of seasonal runoff and to detail the features of its spatial variability. In multi-year flow fluctuations, the element of uncertainty is greater, and the patterns and trends are not so obvious. Nevertheless, the analysis of cyclicity and trends showed that the annual runoff of most major Arctic rivers has increased by 5-10 % mainly due to a trend increasing since the late 1980s and climatic reasons. Most of all the annual runoff has increased near the rivers of the Kola Peninsula and Karelia, the Republic of Yakutia. The "stable behaviour" of the runoff or even its decrease was revealed near Mezen, the rivers of the Ob North and the Far Northeast. A series of maps reflecting the current distribution of the rivers of the Russian Arctic have been compiled. The increase in the annual runoff on most rivers was provided by an increase in the water content in various hydrological seasons. Especially pronounced was the positive dynamics for the runoff of the winter low-water period, to the greatest extent in the mouths of the regulated rivers Ob (by 20 %), Yenisei (68 %) and Kolyma (174 %), and also Lena (47 %) that has a large regulated tributary (Vilyui River). The results of the study show that it is the inter-annual and seasonal regulation of runoff performed by large reservoirs and their filling that is the main factor of anthropogenic disturbances in the amount of runoff and water regime of the Arctic rivers. The paper also assesses the role of full and irretrievable water consumption in the catchment areas of all the Arctic rivers (in the past, present and in the near future), its territorial and industrial structure. Its impact on the inflow of river waters to the Arctic Seas is not statistically significant, but it has signs of a crisis situation in some areas of the Arctic catchment area. In total, about 20.6 km3 of river and subterranean waters are removed from the basins of the Arctic rivers on the territory of Russia per year. By the years of 2025-2030 this value is planned to be increased to 37.2 km3 per year. The article summarizes the existing predictions of a likely change in the river runoff in the Russian Arctic sector in the first half of the 21st century. They, in general, indicate its further and significant increase
Добавил в систему: Магрицкий Дмитрий Владимирович

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Long-term changes of river water inflow into the seas of the Russian Arctic sectorстатья

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