Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods

Günter, B.; Hall, J.; Viglione, A.; P.R.; Parajka, J.; Merz, B.; Lun, D.; Arheimer, B.; T, A.G.; Bilibashi, A.; Boháč, M.; Bonacci, O.; Borga, M.; Čanjevac, I.; Castellarin, A.; B, C.G.; Claps, P.; Frolova, N.; Ganora, D.; Gorbachova, L.; Gül, A.; Hannaford, J.; Harrigan, S.; Kireeva, M.; Kiss, A.; R, K.T.; Kohnová, S.; J, K.J.; Ledvinka, O.; Macdonald, N.; Mavrova-Guirguinova, M.; Mediero, L.; Merz, R.; Molnar, P.; Montanari, A.; Murphy, C.; Osuch, M.; Ovcharuk, V.; Radevski, I.; L, S.J.; Sauquet, E.; Šraj, M.; Szolgay, J.; Volpi, E.; Wilson, D.; Zaimi, K.; Živković, N.

Авторы: Günter Blöschl, Julia Hall, Alberto Viglione, Perdigão Rui A.P., Juraj Parajka, Bruno Merz, David Lun, Berit Arheimer, Aronica Giuseppe T., Ardian Bilibashi, Miloň Boháč, Ognjen Bonacci, Marco Borga, Ivan Čanjevac, Attilio Castellarin, Chirico Giovanni B., Pierluigi Claps, Natalia Frolova, Daniele Ganora, Liudmyla Gorbachova, Ali Gül, Jamie Hannaford, Shaun Harrigan, Maria Kireeva, Andrea Kiss, Kjeldsen Thomas R., Silvia Kohnová, Koskela Jarkko J., Ondrej Ledvinka, Neil Macdonald, Maria Mavrova-Guirguinova, Luis Mediero, Ralf Merz, Peter Molnar, Alberto Montanari, Conor Murphy, Marzena Osuch, Valeryia Ovcharuk, Ivan Radevski, Salinas José L., Eric Sauquet, Mojca Šraj, Jan Szolgay, Elena Volpi, Donna Wilson, Klodian Zaimi, Nenad Živković
Журнал: Nature
Год издания: 2019
Издательство: Nature Publishing Group
Местоположение издательства: United Kingdom
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6
Аннотация: Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our resultsвЂ”arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.
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Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floodsстатья

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