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Anticipated Expansions of Life Expectancy and Their Long-Run Growth Effectsтезисы доклада
- Авторы: Anton Belyakov, Alexey Kurbatskiy, Prettner Klaus
- Сборник: MIC 2019: Managing Geostrategic Issues
- Тезисы
- Год издания: 2019
- Место издания: University of Primorska Press Opatija, Croatia
- Аннотация: Most industrialized countries have aging populations due to decrease in birth rates and increase in life expectancy. All G7 countries experienced substantial demographic changes during the last 60 years resulting in population aging. R&D-based endogenous growth models predict that population agingfoster long-run growth. These models consider reaction of economic agents to unexpected changes indemographic parameters, such as mortality and fertility, and convergence to a new balanced growthpath. While agents in developing countries may predict these changes observing situation in developedcountries and make adjustments to consumption/saving distribution in advance. In order to describesuch behaviour one needs a model with rational expectations and predicted demographic transition.We extend overlapping generation (OLG) model in (Prettner 2013) consistent with Romer (1990)framework with anticipated changes of mortality and fertility. Balanced growth path solution isderived as the only feasible stationary solution. The central strength of the model is that it allows the numerical analysis of anticipated changes in mortality and fertility. So we pose the question ofwhether a sudden drop of mortality and fertility by a similar amount (which might not be anticipated)leads to higher per capita GDP in the long run than the anticipated case. We consider the Romer (1990) benchmark case in which population growth is zero such that fertility adjusts to equate mortality.
- Добавил в систему: Курбацкий Алексей Николаевич
Прикрепленные файлы
| № | Имя | Описание | Имя файла | Размер | Добавлен |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Полный текст | 74.pdf | 575,9 КБ | 23 декабря 2019 [anton.o.belyakov] |