Climate noise effect on uncertainty of hydrological extremes: numerical experiments with hydrological and climate models

Авторы: Gelfan A., Semenov V., Motovilov Yu
Сборник: Extreme Hydrological Events
Том: 369
Год издания: 2015
Место издания: Proceedings IAHS
Первая страница: 49
Последняя страница: 53
DOI: 10.5194/piahs-369-49-2015
Аннотация: An approach has been proposed to analyze the simulated hydrological extreme uncertainty related to the internal variability of the atmosphere (“climate noise”), which is inherent to the climate system and considered as the lowest level of uncertainty achievable in climate impact studies. To assess the climate noise effect, numerical experiments were made with climate model ECHAM5 and hydrological model ECOMAG. The case study was carried out to Northern Dvina River basin (catchment area is 360000km2), whose hydrological regime is characterised by extreme freshets during spring-summer snowmelt period. The climate noise was represented by ensemble ECHAM5 simulations (45 ensemble members) with identical historical boundary forcing and varying initial conditions. An ensemble of the ECHAM5-outputs for the period of 1979–2012 was used (after bias correction post-processing) as the hydrological model inputs, and the corresponding ensemble of 45 multi-year hydrographs was simulated. From this ensemble, we derived ﬂood statistic uncertainty caused by the internal variability of the atmosphere.
Добавил в систему: Гельфан Александр Наумович

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