Long-term hydrological forecasting in cold regions: retrospect, current status and prospectстатья
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Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 4 декабря 2016 г.
Аннотация:The influence of long-term snow accumulation on the runoff conditions several months afterwards
is a distinct hydrological characteristic of cold regions, which creates opportunities for longterm
(seasonal and subseasonal) hydrological forecasting in these regions. We consider evolution of
the long-term forecasting approaches from the deterministic data-based index methods to the
hydrological model-based ensemble approaches. Of key interest in this review are the methods
developed and used in operational practice in Russia and in the USA, with the emphasis being
placed on the methods used in Russia, which may be less familiar to international hydrological
society. Following a description of the historical context, we review recent developments that
place emphasis on problems relating to the uncertainty of the weather conditions for the lead time
of the forecast. We conclude with a personal view of the prospects for the future development of
long-term hydrological forecasting techniques.