New technologies, potential unemployment and ‘nescience economy’ during and after the 2020 economic crisis

Zemtsov, S.

Автор: Zemtsov S.
Журнал: REGIONAL SCIENCE POLICY AND PRACTICE
Том: 12
Номер: 4
Год издания: 2020
Первая страница: 723
Последняя страница: 743
DOI: 10.1111/rsp3.12286
Аннотация: The coronavirus pandemic and the economic crisis in 2020 are accelerating digital transformation. During and after the crisis, there are opportunities and needs for remote work facilities, online services, delivery drones, etc. We discuss how unmanned technologies can cause a long‐term employment decrease, and why compensation mechanisms may not work. Using internationally comparable Frey‐Osborne methodology, we estimated that less than a third of employees in Russia work in professions with a high automation probability. These professions can suffer the most during quarantine measures; employment in traditional services can be significantly reduced. Till 2030, about half of the jobs in the world and a little less in Russia need to adapt during fourth industrial revolution because they are engaged in routine, potentially automated activities. In the regions, specializing in manufacturing, this value is higher; the lowest risk is in the largest agglomerations with a high share of digital economy, greater and diverse labour markets. Accelerating technological change can lead to a long‐term mismatch between the exponential increase in automation rate, compensating effects of retraining and new jobs creation. Some people will not be ready for a life‐long learning and competition with robots, and accordingly there is a possibility of their technological exclusion. The term ‘nescience economy’ and corresponding assessment method were proposed. Using an econometric model, we identified factors that reduce these risks: human capital, business climate, quality of life and ICT development. Based on these factors, some recommendations for authorities were proposed in the conclusion.
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New technologies, potential unemployment and ‘nescience economy’ during and after the 2020 economic crisisстатья

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