The individual-based model of population dynamics of the critically endangered Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus semenovi) on Mednyi Island (North Pacific, Commander Islands)статья Электронная публикация

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Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 9 марта 2017 г.

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[1] The individual-based model of population dynamics of the critically endangered arctic fox (vulpes lagopus semenovi) on mednyi island (north pacific, commander islands) / M. E. Goltsman, E. D. Sushko, L. O. Doronina, E. P. Kruchenkova // Принципы экологии (Principy èkologii). — 2016. — Vol. 5, no. 3. — P. 45–45. The method of individual-based modeling rapidly gains new applications in ecology (Grimm, Railsback, 2005, 2012; DeAngelis, Mooij, 2005; McLaneetal, 2011). Several important advantages make this approach the most applicable for using in conservation biology. First, individual-based models (IBM) are the universal and powerful. They can work on ecological and evolutionary time-scales and describe systems containing thousands of unique entities (individuals or agents) that interact with each other and their environment. Second, IBMs are based on the logic of individual behavior of agents in the explicitly defined environment. System dynamics are formed by the interaction of autonomous components. These characteristics allow using IBM to study real demographical, population-genetic and evolutionary processes, since such models are less constrained technically than mathematical models. We develop a spatially explicit IBM of population dynamics of the critically endangered Arctic Fox (Vulpes lagopus semenovi) on Mednyi Island (North Pacific, Commander Islands). Parameters of the model are derived from long-term (1994–2012) individual-based field study of behavioral ecology, diet, dispersal and demographic dynamics of the Mednyi fox population. We estimated the sex- and age-specific mortality rates and dispersal, life expectancy, sex ratio, family sizes and compositions, litter sizes, reproductive success depending on sex and age and mapped fox dens, home ranges and food patches. We parameterize the model with 47 input parameters representing resource distribution, behavioral strategies and life-history parameters of seven age classes of females and males. The ultimate purpose of the model is to explore the consequences of various environmental impacts (such as diseases, food source abundance, increase of mortality rate in different sex and age groups or artificial increase of survival and breeding rate due to human interferences) on the population structure and the dynamics of the main population characteristics. We describe the design and application of the model, and the processes of calibration, sensitivity analysis and validation with empirical field data. We test the model by comparing its predictions with field observations at the end of the 14-year period since the projectʼs onset, i.e., 5 years beyond the time on which the parameters were based. The model matches closely the observed patterns of the Mednyi Arctic fox population, including population size, age structure, sex ratio, reproductive group number and spatial distribution.

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