An empirical method for the prediction of extreme low winter sea ice extent in the Barents Sea

Cherenkova, E.A.; Semenov, V.A.; Titkova, T.B.

Авторы: Cherenkova E.A., Semenov V.A., Titkova T.B.
Сборник: IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci
Том: 611
Год издания: 2020
Первая страница: 012042
DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/611/1/012042
Аннотация: This study addresses a possibility to use surface air temperature (SAT) of theNorthern Hemisphere as a potential predictor for winter sea ice concentration (SIC) in theBarents Sea. The areas of most significant correlation between the leading modes of jointvariability of the observed SIC in January-March and the SAT in the autumn, winter, andspring months in the 1979-2019 period are determined using a method of singular valuedecomposition (SVD) of covariance matrices. An analysis of the structure of this linkage hasshown its robustness for SIC in the Barents Sea. The most strongly related areas are found inthe first leading mode of the SVD analysis of the SIC in January-March and the SAT inNovember-January. The first SVD-mode explains in total 55% of covariation of bothparameters. It has been revealed that the January-March SIC in the northern part of the BarentsSea is strongly correlated with the November-January SAT in Scandinavia and over theBarents Sea (the correlation coefficient is -0.8). The relationship between the SIC and SAT inkey areas has allowed obtaining estimates of SIC in the northern part of the Barents Sea in the21st century from an ensemble of 30 CMIP5 GCMs by using models’ SAT data. It has beenfound that the RCP 4.5 scenario results in a strong reduction in the sea ice in the northern partof the Barents Sea by 2041-2050. At the same time, no complete disappearance of sea ice isexpected until the end of the century. According to the aggressive scenario RCP 8.5, almostfree-ice Barents Sea is expected by the middle of the 21st century.
Добавил в систему: Черенкова Елена Анатольевна

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An empirical method for the prediction of extreme low winter sea ice extent in the Barents Seaстатья

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