The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Soultan, A.; Pavón-Jordán, D.; Bradter, U.; Sandercock, B.; Hochachka, W.; Johnston, A.; Brommer, J.E.; Gaget, E.; Keller, V.; Knaus, P.; Aghababyan, K.; Maxhuni, Q.; Vintchevski, A.; Nagy, K.; Raudonikis, L.; Balmer, D.; Noble, D.; Leitão, D.; Øien, I.; Shimmings, P.; Sultanov, E.; Caffrey, B.; Boyla, K.; Radišić, D.; Lindström, Å.; Velevski, M.; Pladevall, C.; Brotons, L.; Stastny, K.; Rajković, D.; Chodkiewicz, T.; Szep, T.; Wilk, T.; van Turnhout, C.; Burfield, I.; Vikstrøm, T.; Mazal, V.; Eaton, M.; Voříšek, P.; Lehikoinen, A.; Herrando, S.; Kuzmenko, T.; Bauer, H.G.; Kalyakin, M.V.; Voltzit, O.V.; Pärt, T.

Авторы: Soultan A., Pavón-Jordán D., Bradter U., Sandercock B., Hochachka W., Johnston A., Brommer J.E., Gaget E., Keller V., Knaus P., Aghababyan K., Maxhuni Q., Vintchevski A., Nagy K., Raudonikis L., Balmer D., Noble D., Leitão D., Øien I., Shimmings P., Sultanov E., Caffrey B., Boyla K., Radišić D., Lindström Å., Velevski M., Pladevall C., Brotons L., Stastny K., Rajković D., Chodkiewicz T., Szep T., Wilk T., van Turnhout C., Burfield I., Vikstrøm T., Mazal V., Eaton M., Voříšek P., Lehikoinen A., Herrando S., Kuzmenko T., Bauer H.G., Kalyakin M.V., Voltzit O.V., Pärt T.
Журнал: Environmental Research Letters
Том: 17
Номер: 2
Год издания: 2022
Издательство: IOP Publishing
Местоположение издательства: [Bristol, UK], England
Первая страница: 1
Последняя страница: 12
Номер статьи: 024025
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe
Аннотация: Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming andland-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) topredict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe,including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected forthe first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributionalchanges over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared toobserved annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using datafrom the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostlysoutherly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. Thenorthern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predictedto shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadlypositively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from thepredictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr−1towards the north(5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca.3.9 km yr−1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes,which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather thanquantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, ourresults highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restorationto improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
Добавил в систему: Волцит Ольга Викторовна

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