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Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice developmentстатья
Статья опубликована в высокорейтинговом журнале
Информация о цитировании статьи получена из
Scopus
Статья опубликована в журнале из списка Web of Science и/или Scopus
Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 16 июня 2022 г.
- Авторы: Niezgodzki Igor, Knorr Gregor, Lohmann Gerrit, Lunt Daniel J., Poulsen Christopher J., Steinig Sebastian, Zhu Jiang, de Boer Agatha, Chan Wing-Le, Donnadieu Yannick, Hutchinson David K., Ladant Jean-Baptiste, Morozova Polina
- Журнал: Global and Planetary Change
- Том: 214
- Год издания: 2022
- Издательство: Elsevier BV
- Местоположение издательства: Netherlands
- Первая страница: 103848
- DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848
- Аннотация: AbstractThe early Eocene greenhouse climate maintained by high atmospheric CO2 concentrations serves as a testbed for future climate changes dominated by increasing CO2 forcing. In particular, the early Eocene Arctic region is important in the context of future CO2 driven climate warming in the northern polar region and associated shrinking Arctic sea ice. Here, we present early Eocene Arctic sea ice simulations carried out by six coupled climate models within the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). We find differences in sea ice responses to CO2 changes across the ensemble and compare the results with available proxy-based sea ice reconstructions from the Arctic Ocean. Most of the models simulate seasonal sea ice presence at high CO2 levels (≥ 840 ppmv = 3× pre-industrial (PI) level of 280 ppmv). However, the threshold when sea ice permanently disappears from the ocean varies considerably between the models (from <840 ppmv to >1680 ppmv). Based on a one-dimensional energy balance model analysis we find that the greenhouse effect likely caused by increased atmospheric water vapor concentration plays an important role in the inter-model spread in Arctic winter surface temperature changes in response to a CO2 rise from 1× to 3× the PI level. Furthermore, differences in simulated surface salinity in the Arctic Ocean play an important role in the control of local sea ice formation. These differences result from different implementations of river run-off between the models, but also from differences in the exchange of waters between a brackish Arctic and a more saline North Atlantic Ocean that are controlled by the width of the gateway between both basins. As there is no geological evidence for Arctic sea ice in the early Eocene, its presence in most of the simulations with 3× PI CO2 level indicates either a higher CO2 level and/or an overly weak polar sensitivity in these models.
- Добавил в систему: Морозова Полина Анатольевна