Method MEE of medium-term earthquake forecast: results and prospects

Zavyalov, A.D.; Morozov, A.N.; Aleshin, I.M.; Ivanov, S.D.; Kholodkov, K.I.; Pavlenko, V.A.

Авторы: Zavyalov A.D., Morozov A.N., Aleshin I.M., Ivanov S.D., Kholodkov K.I., Pavlenko V.A.
Сборник: Proceedings of the Third European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology - 3ECEES: September 5-September 9, 2022, Bucharest, Romania
Год издания: 2022
Место издания: Bucureşti: Conspress Bucharest, Romania
Первая страница: 4135
Последняя страница: 4140
Аннотация: This paper is the first of a series of papers devoted to the results of the application of the medium-term earthquake forecast method MEE (Map of Expected Earthquakes) and the analysis of the prospects for its further modernization. The MEE method has been applied in seismically active regions of the world, different in their tectonic conditions and seismic regime over the past 35 years. It is shown that the average efficiency of the algorithm is 2.5 times higher than for random guessing. It is planned to introduce new methods in data processing into the upgraded algorithm of the MEE method. This will significantly increase the amount of analysed information, take into account the features of the seismic process with depth, use lineament-domain-focal (LDF) models of the structure of seismically active zones, and build three-dimensional distributions of the probability values of strong earthquakes occurrence. It is planned to expand the list of used seismological precursors that have sufficient physical justification of their connection with the earthquake preparation process and formalized procedures for their selection for use in forecasting practice.
Добавил в систему: Завьялов Алексей Дмитриевич

	ИСТИНА	Войти в систему Регистрация
	ИПМех РАН
	Главная Поиск Статистика О проекте Помощь

ИСТИНА

ИПМех РАН

Method MEE of medium-term earthquake forecast: results and prospectsстатья Исследовательская статья

Прикрепленные файлы