О методе прогноза штормовых условий при изменениях климатастатья
Статья опубликована в журнале из списка RSCI Web of Science
Информация о цитировании статьи получена из
Scopus
Статья опубликована в журнале из перечня ВАК
Статья опубликована в журнале из списка Web of Science и/или Scopus
Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 24 апреля 2018 г.
Аннотация:Mathematic modeling (climatic models or models of the Earth’s climatic system) is used to forecast variations of the state of the environment under climate changes. However, the direct application of modeling results to forecast dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena (DHP) would not bring success because such phenomena as squalls, floods, catastrophic snowstorms etc. are formed within circulation systems of small spatial and temporal scales and therefore could not be adequately depicted by the models of general atmosphere-ocean circulation. Forecasting of DHP becomes possible if they are closely related to particular large-scale parameters of meteorological fields which could be reliably modeled. In this case in order to forecast a certain DHP in a particular region it is necessary just to have information about the transformation of a large-scale predictor under climate changes. The article presents an example of suggested approach application. Statistical data of storm conditions in a number of sites of the Black Sea coast was analyzed and their changes were forecasted for the middle of the 21st century under a specific scenario of climate warming.
РИНЦ: http://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=18780992
SCOPUS: Surkova, G.V., Koltermann, K.P., Kislov, A.V. Method of forecasting storm conditions for the Black Sea under climate changes. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta, Seriya 5: Geografiya, 2012, (6), pp. 25-31.
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84875504782&partnerID=40&md5=c6b279d94f0aa7f152cc30c06c2f6bb1