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Optimal Future for the Irrigation Agriculture Under Climate Change in the Fergana Valley, Central Asiaстатья
- Авторы: Nikanorova A.D., Dronin N.M.
- Сборник: International journal of environmental science and natural resources
- Серия: 2
- Том: 3
- Год издания: 2017
- Место издания: Juniper Publishers Inc California, USA
- Первая страница: 1
- Последняя страница: 8
- DOI: 10.19080/IJESNR.2017.03.555607
- Аннотация: The changes in irrigational water deficit in the Fergana Valley, Central Asia were evaluated based on different scenarios of climate changes well as land & water management. The Fergana Valley is located within the Syr Darya River basin and shared by three countries: Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The main driver of the Valley economy has been cotton farming, which consumes large amount of water. The current volatile state of irrigational agricultures caused by restricted transboundary water flow in the cotton-growing season from upstream Kyrgyzstan. In the Fergana Valley local farmers can’t afford modern management of their land and water resources which become overexploited and polluted. Apart from the current shortages, climate change may alter projected water demand increases within the Valley. Two climatic and land & water use scenarios were combined in the water deficit models for three time periods: the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The authors suggest that climatic scenario SRES/A2 could be related to the “business as usual” scenario of land and water management (including the unstable transboundary water flow) while the climatic scenario SRES/B1 corresponds to the “optimal” scenario of land & water management in the Fergana Valley, which would require restoration of international water regulation.
- Добавил в систему: Никанорова Александра Дмитриевна