Статья опубликована в журнале из списка RSCI Web of Science
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Статья опубликована в журнале из перечня ВАК
Статья опубликована в журнале из списка Web of Science и/или Scopus
Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 29 мая 2018 г.
Аннотация:A probabilistic approach to modelling of avalanche origin and dynamics is developed. An avalanche process is considered as an integral one. As a basis, the physically proven deterministic models describing the processes of avalanche origin and motion are used. At the same time, input data and parameters of these models are treated as random variables. The study was restricted only to a dynamic stage of the avalanche process. It was assumed that the initial volume of snow entrained into the motion and the coefficients of dry and turbulent friction for avalanche body are random variables. Other input data were deterministic. Three kinds of distribution laws for random variables were examined, i.e. uniform, normal and exponential ones. Several series of numerical tests, carried out for the selected avalanche path No 22 in the Khibiny region, allowed to construct the distribution functions for the output parameters of the dynamic model, namely, the front velocity, the height and the volume of avalanche body at the fixed points of the avalanche path. It was revealed not too important dependence of distribution functions on the kind of distribution laws. The theoretical and empirical distribution functions are very close for run-out distances and close enough for depths and volumes of deposit snow.