|
ИСТИНА |
Войти в систему Регистрация |
ИПМех РАН |
||
A NEW EMPIRICAL METHOD FOR PREDICTING OF THE SOLAR CYCLES MAIN PARAMETERSтезисы доклада
- Авторы: Khlystov A.I., Somov B.V.
- Сборник: Электронная версия на флэшке Cospar
- Тезисы
- Год издания: 2014
- Место издания: Москва
- Аннотация: On the basis of the available data on the sums of spotless days (DT0) before the following solar cycle (beginning from Cycle 10), the prediction plots with the input parameter DT0 in all these plots were constructed. Convincing interrelation between the number of spotless days DT0 and main characteristics of the following cycle: the length of the rise branch, maximum height and total length, was established. Using as the input parameter value DT0 = 800 (August 12, 2010) the following characteristics of cycle 24 were obtained: the beginning Date is 2009.0 (January 2009); the length of the rise branch RW = 4.8 years; the date of the maximum is 2013.8 (October 2013), Wolf's number in the maximum WM = 63 ; the length of the decline branch DW = 7.8 years; the total length DTmm = 12.6 years; Date of next minimum 2021.6 (July 2021). The principal features of the method used are published in article: A.I.Khlystov and B.V.Somov, Predicting the main parameters of solar cycle 24 by the number of spotless days in the previous minimum / Izvestiya - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2012, Vol. 48, No. 7, pp. 717-723, Maik Nauka/Interperiodica Publishing (Russian Federation).
- Добавил в систему: Хлыстов Анатолий Ильич