|
ИСТИНА |
Войти в систему Регистрация |
ИПМех РАН |
||
Intercomparison of the Wetchimp-Wsl Wetland Methane Models over West Siberia: How Well Can We Simulate High-Latitude Wetland Methane Emissions?тезисы доклада
- Авторы: Bohn T.J., Melton J., Brovkin V., Chen G., Denisov S.N., Eliseev A.V., Gallego-Sala A., Glagolev M., Ito A., Kaplan J.O., Kleinen T., Maksyutov S., McDonald K.C., Rawlins M., Riley W.J., Schroeder R., Spahni R., Stocker B., Subin Z.M., Tian H., Zhang B., Zhu X., Zhuang Q.
- Сборник: American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2014 Fall Meeting
- Серия: SA21B-2514
- Тезисы
- Год издания: 2014
- Место издания: AGU San Francisco
- Первая страница: Abstract#B44A
- Последняя страница: 08
- Аннотация: Wetlands are the world’s largest natural source of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. The strong sensitivity of these emissions to environmental factors such as soil temperature and moisture has led to concerns about potential positive feedbacks to climate change. This is particularly true at high latitudes, which have experienced pronounced warming and where thawing permafrost could potentially liberate large amounts of labile carbon over this century. Despite the importance of wetland methane emissions to the global carbon cycle and climate dynamics, global models exhibit little agreement as to the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions, due to uncertainties in both wetland area and emissions per unit area driven by a scarcity of in situ observations. Recent intensive field campaigns across West Siberia make this an ideal region over which to assess the performance of large-scale process-based wetland models in a high-latitude environment. Here we present the results of a follow-up to the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Model Intercomparison Project focused on the West Siberian Lowland (WETCHIMP-WSL). We assessed 17 models and 5 inversions over this domain in terms of total CH4 emissions, simulated wetland areas, and CH4 fluxes per unit wetland area and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux dataset, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. Findings include: a) estimates of total CH4 emissions from both models and inversions spanned almost an order of magnitude; b) forward models using inundation alone to estimate wetland areas suffered from severe biases in CH4 emissions; and c) aside from these area-driven biases, disagreement in flux per unit wetland area was the main driver of forward model uncertainty. We examine which forward model approaches are best suited towards simulating high-latitude wetlands and make recommendations for future modeling, remote sensing, and field campaigns to reduce model uncertainty.
- Добавил в систему: Глаголев Михаил Владимирович