ИСТИНА

he inefficiency of short-term forecasting of strong earthquakes is obvious. New methods and hypotheses about the preparation of seismic events are interesting, but exact and reliable forecasts will not result. This unpredictability is undoubtedly determined by the nonlinearity, self-similarity, a chaotic (nonstochastic) character, and bifurcation dynamics of a seismic process in a fractal geomedium. Superdependence of geodynamic systems on initial conditions and parameters, vagueness of distinctions between background and anomalous structures and states, along with rigid requirements on the adequacy and representativity of forecasts, inevitably lead to the failure to solve the problem.